I was recently having a conversation about the psychology behind playing poker with one of our Run It Once Elite coaches. It got me thinking about a recurring theme in my heads-up matches that’s been a game-changer for me. Whether you play heads-up or not, the realization I came to might be valuable for you, too.

The Tipping Point

When I play a long heads-up match such as the Galfond Challenges, or find myself in a prolonged battle on the high-stakes streets against the same opponent, there’s almost always a moment in the match when everything just clicks for me.

It tends to happen when my game plan for my opponent feels complete. I've broken down my opponent’s stats such that I have a plan for every branch of the game tree.

I’ve formed a psychological profile of sorts — a feel in my mind for how they think and how they react to various things.

For example:

I’m going to delay c-bet more bluff-heavy.
I need to fold more to his turn probes.
I’ll start slowplaying flops to raise more turn c-bets.

Once I reach this point in a match, my results tend to get a lot better.

This is a very logical pattern… except for one thing.

The Mystery

I go on in the match, feeling great about my adjustments and proud of myself for having figured this opponent out, usually having great results.

Then, a few thousand hands later, I go back and review the stats. I figure I’ll see if they’ve countered in any way, and I’ll be able to uncover some more valuable leaks with this larger sample size of hands.

Interestingly, about half the time, I learn that many of my initial assumptions were way off.

They weren’t folding to delay c-bets too much. It turns out they were just running bad in that spot.

They weren’t double-barreling too thinly for value, and my flop slowplays had cost me a lot of EV.

So, while some of my adjustments were right, others were dead wrong – surely costing me money. And yet, somehow, that flawed game plan still led to me having better results.

How is that possible?

I pondered this question for a while, reflecting on my matches and the sessions themselves, and I think I’ve figured it out.

The Three Bonus Ingredients

Along with the reads I got from breaking my opponents down and the game plan I developed from those reads, I also generated a few more advantages.

Confidence

Being confident in your game plan allows you to play with confidence!

The feeling of knowing the answers in most situations is a powerful one. That knowing leads to decisive action, less vulnerability to emotional swings, and less fear in big pots.

As a result, I’m tilting less, I’m trusting my gut more, and I’m making the big plays when I believe they’re the right ones.

Bandwidth

When I have a full game plan, I no longer need to dedicate mental bandwidth to figuring out the theoretically optimal play in each situation, nor am I trying to evaluate exactly how my opponent seems to be playing.

I have my answers. I found them in my research.

So I’m not trying to play GTO – I'm playing to exploit my opponent by overfolding, underfolding, overbluffing, underbluffing, attacking this sizing but not that sizing, and so on – all the things that I decided on away from the table.

That, in turn, allows me to be truly present in the game.

Presence

I believe presence in poker is extremely underrated. Many know that it’s important, yet they still overlook its significance.

When you're present in-game, you get to pick up on small nuances in individual hands. You get to access that next level of your thought process, where you can connect dots just a level or two above your less focused mind’s capacity.

You get to draw from all your knowledge of the game, your opponent, and your history with them to see the opportunities for above-the-rim plays that take focused effort to spot. This happens consciously, but also subconsciously.

Presence allows your memory and pattern recognition to link an opponent’s action back to something you've seen before. On a conscious level, this usually translates into a certain feeling about a situation, such as "I don't think he has it here."

Sometimes you can explain it, and sometimes you can't, but I’ve seen enough evidence over the years to know I should usually trust those reads.

While it's impossible to fully free up your mental bandwidth to focus solely on observation, I try to do everything I can to maximize my presence. I simplify my strategy, build a game plan that I can execute with confidence, and minimize thoughts that aren’t focused on the moment and hand-reading.

Double Blind Trial

To oversimplify things: When I develop a game plan, one of two things happens:

I develop valuable knowledge on my opponent and execute a strategy that generates more EV, or…
My game plan leads me astray more often than in the right direction, but allows me to play with the confidence and presence that makes me better than I was before.

Each time I go through this, I don’t know if I’m getting the placebo or the real thing, but it works all the same.

Whether or not my exact method works for you and the games you play in, it's worth asking yourself the question:

What strategies can you use to bring presence and confidence to the tables more routinely?

When It All Clicks: Bad Assumptions, Good Results