It's Time to Wake Up

Today, I need to talk about something I’ve been holding myself back from writing. This is about how some (a lot) of my readers are – sorry – delusional about themselves and poker. How they have no idea where they stand and even less of an idea about what it takes to improve.

I want to start this post by stating the obvious (at least to me): I own a poker training site. I'm financially incentivized to convince you to buy poker training, and this post will be doing that. This is why I haven't written it yet. I know some of you will think this comes from a disingenuous place. I won't link to my stuff today.

If a thousand of you think that's why I'm doing this and unsubscribe, and five of you snap out of your delusion and have a better life and poker career, that's a win. So, let's do it.

Losers

Poker is fundamentally different than roulette or craps in that it's player vs. player, which allows for long-term winners, but it is still gambling.

Gambling is such a successful industry because humans aren't wired to understand it. We're fooled by it.

Most losers don't know they are losers. Some know it, but don't know what it really means. They don't think about the fact that every time they make a $5 pull on a slot machine, they're losing $0.50.

Sure, there will be swings.

But five years and 50,000 pulls later, they're extremely likely to be down $15,000–$35,000.

In the meantime, they'll ride the waves of random noise, successfully designed to obscure their near-inevitable destination.

Poker, in some ways, can be worse.

Because poker players can win in the long run, it's easy to fool yourself into thinking you're a winner.

In fact, I'll go further: It's hard not to fool yourself!

When You're Not Qualified to Know

Are you more intelligent than the average person?

If not, are you more street-smart than them?

Or are you more intuitive or better at understanding people?

Do you have better emotional control?

Of course you believe you're one of these. And, of course, that means you have a "great" reason to think you'll gain an edge at the poker table.

Maybe you've watched some free YouTube videos reviewing poker hands, looked at a preflop chart, talked to friends about poker, or subscribed to a strategy newsletter!

Perhaps you read about a type of mistake people make, you really understood it, and you've since seen many of your opponents making that very mistake.

There are tons of reasons to think you have an edge over the competition.

And losing poker players – the ones who are big underdogs – they don't have any idea how much they don't know. They don't know how to spot 98% of mistakes (they think they do). They are so clueless about how to think through strategy that if they try to evaluate their skill, their thought process is entirely nonsense.

And they don't know it. How could they?

Wake-Up Call

80%—90% of poker players are losing players.

If you haven't studied with a paid resource, it's probably 95% likely you're a losing player.

If you don't know how combinatorics work at the poker table, you're 95% likely to be losing.

If your results over the past couple of years are negative, you're 99% likely to be an underdog.

If you aren't sure whether or not you're winning or losing the past couple of years, you're 97% likely to be losing.

If a few of these are true for you... guess what?!

You're almost definitely a losing player.

And 80% of losing players reading this are still going to think, "That's not me."

How Much Are You Losing?

Let's say you play $2/$5 live no-limit hold'em as a losing player.

This will vary a ton based on your play style and skill level, but to give you a ballpark, you might be losing something like 15bb/100. (If you don't know what that means... you might be a losing player!)

At about 3 hours to play 100 hands, that's $75 lost, for -$25/hr.

If you play an average of 6 hours/week, that's $150 a week, $7,800 a year, $78,000 over ten years.

And this loss rate is not a wild one. It's very common for losing players to lose double this amount, and over five times as much in tougher games.

"I Can't Afford It"

Though I've known everything I've written above for 15+ years, I was triggered to rant about it when I saw a (very nice) comment in response to a recent newsletter.

It's funny… if I read a comment like, "lol who needs to study at your stupid training site," it doesn't bother me.

But this comment was about how much this particular reader loves and appreciates my content and how they'd love to learn from the paid resources I share someday but can't afford to right now.

It triggered me because I want this person and people like them to do better!

You can lose an average of $100 per poker session, but you can't afford a $50 course?

You can lose $8k/year but you would never pay $1k for advanced poker training?

This reader knows who they are (I don't because the survey below is anonymous). If you're reading again, I don't care who you buy poker training from, get coaching from, etc. But I want you to do it!

Go to a competitor. Advancedpokertraining.com, apestylescoaching.com, BBZPoker.com, carrotcorner.com, clcpoker.com, crushlivepoker.com, gripsed.com, GTOwizard.com, jakacoaching.com, pokercode.com, pokercoaching.com, pokerstrategy.com, pokersnowie.com, raiseyouredge.com, redchippoker.com, solveforwhy.io, tournamentpokeredge.com, upswingpoker.com… there are countless options. Hire a coach, or join a community that gets you actively involved in learning.

I truly don't care if my company doesn't make $50 from you. But don't tell yourself that you can't afford it.

If you play poker with any regularity, you can't afford not to learn to win.

And this isn't just for losing players!

Let's say you're a 3bb/100 winner at $0.25/$0.50 online, and you play 2k hands per session, five sessions a week. What if you could increase your winrate to 5bb?

That adds $5,200 to your annual earnings. $26,000 extra over the next five years, if it doesn't also lead to further growth and advancement and you moving up in stakes to earn much more than that!

Everyone can benefit from investing in themselves as poker players.

I always have.

Before training sites, I bought books and hired 1:1 coaches. Then I subscribed to training sites. Then I hired more coaches, invested in tools, created serious study groups.

And, guess what else?!

I was smarter than the average person. I was good at understanding the way people think. I was naturally level-headed.

And I was still a loser before I studied the game. I still needed it.

Not only did investing in myself make me a winner... it accelerated my growth and earnings substantially.

But sure... maybe you're special. Maybe you're more naturally talented than I am and are entirely unhelped by learning from anyone else.

Maybe you're already making as much as you possibly can.

Or at least you will be once the cards even out. Right?

What Do You Want?

It's absolutely fine to treat poker as a hobby, and to not have an interest in studying in any way, shape or form. I respect that completely.

What gets me, though, is the disconnect from reality that I'm becoming more and more aware of.

You're given a survey when you sign up for this newsletter so that I can learn about what my readers need. And I have been absolutely floored by the results.

The majority of you would like to be semi-professional or professional.

And the majority of you who want those things have not invested a penny into learning the game.

?????????????

When I coach people directly, I'm essentially always working with high-performers -- people who are driven to achieve more. They don't all have perfect discipline or follow through on everything they wish they did to improve – that happens – but they all want it, and they're willing to keep trying to do what it takes to succeed.

It's how I'm wired, too, which is what makes this so hard for me to understand.

"I want to get super strong, but strength training isn't for me."

“Omg I'm SO thirsty, but I don't want water."

"I plan to be a world-class physicist, so I'm going to drop shit off my roof every week and see what happens."

Poker playing is a skill. It's a massively complex and fascinating game.

I have literally never met a player who doesn't or wouldn't benefit from investing in their game.

Never.

Me and You

I truly appreciate you trusting me with your attention by subscribing to my newsletter.

You may like me a bit less now, but I'd be betraying that trust if I held this back and let you continue living your delusion.

Maybe 50% of my readers are these mythical beings who can't benefit and earn more (or lose less) by investing in their game. Maybe they are somehow this breed of human that I've never encountered in the real world during my 20 years in the game.

Or maybe... just maybe...

They're the reason that some of us can make a living playing a game we love.

Whether you're predator or prey in this game, I respect and appreciate you.

But since you're here with me, if it's what you want too, I'd rather have you on my end of the food chain.

It's time to wake up.